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Экспорт фармацевтической продукции и динамика обменного курса: эмпирический подход к взаимосвязи

Issue number 3 from 18.12.2025

One of the main factors affecting the export of pharmaceutical products is the exchange rate and its changes. Most studies confirm that there is a significant correlation between export volume and exchange rate. Changes in the exchange rate have a direct and indirect impact on country’s exports. This effect is manifested through the state of the balance of payments, the formation of supply and demand in the money market at the macro level, inflation, the state budget and other similar macroeconomic processes and indicators. Therefore, this article uses the case of Uzbekistan to carry econometric analysis of the relationship between the export of pharmaceutical products and exchange rate dynamics. First, the dynamics of the two variables were tested for nonstationarity using the Augmented Dickey—Fuller test, or ADF-test. Based on the results obtained, the hypothesis about the existence of cointegration in time series was tested using the Engel—Granger method. In the study, the direction of correlation was determined using the Granger causality test. All analyzes were performed using EViews software. The results confirmed the presence of a positive relationship between the export of pharmaceutical products and the dynamics of the exchange rate.

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