MODIFIED COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY WITH THE GAS INDUSTRY RUSEC–PAO “GAZPROM”

Anton Afanasyev

Alexandr Vorontsov

Forecasting the key macroeconomic indicators and evaluating their variance, influenced by a change in natural monopolies’ tariffs is the key priority of any country. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used for economical processes modeling and predicting macroeconomic indexes. CGE model of RUSEC-GAZPROM was designed in 2003 by CEMI RAS to estimate an impact of home natural gas prices change on key Russian macroeconomic indicators. The main purpose of this article is to show a modification of the initial version of RUSEC-GAZPROM by specifying economical agents’ behavior. This modification will allow researchers to investigate how the changes in home natural gas prices affect Russian macroeconomic indicators when gas production volumes are endogenous. There is a description of initial RUSEC–GAZPROM model, and it’s modification – RUSEC – PAO “GAZPROM” – as well as the description of model calibration process. The research also shows the experiments made with the modified model, which demonstrate a reaction of the main Russian macroeconomic indicators on the change in home gas prices. The result of this research contains the modified version of RUSEC–GAZPROM and completed experiments with it. Modified RUSEC-GAZPROM model may be useful to Gazprom corporation, it’s subsidiaries and the Russian Government to find an effective strategy of regulating natural monopolies’ tariffs.