Anton Afanasiev

This study is devoted to forecasting the Russian Gazprom natural gas production from the Tyumen region’s fields and its production potential in the context of the Russian economic crises and foreign economic restrictions that has taken place since 2014, including a reduction in external and domestic demand for Russian natural gas as well as for gas of Gazprom. On the basis of gas production function estimated for 1985–2008 we make forecasts for 2017 of Gazprom gas production in Tyumen region (where the company is producing more than 90% of its gas) and estimate the underutilized production potential of PJSC Gazprom in this region for 2014–2016. Basing on the additional econometric study of Gazprom gas production function (with labour) in the Tyumen Region we have empirically proved the growth of the coefficient of the company’s neutral technical progress since 2014, one of the consequences of which, according to the author, was a continuous decline since 2014 the unit cost of natural gas production of the Gazprom subsidiary “Gazprom dobycha Nadym”, which operates the largest Bovanenkovskoye oil and gas condensate field in the Yamal Peninsula which reserves are estimated to be 4.9 trill. cub. m of gas. It is concluded that in the Russian economic crisis that has been intensified since 2014 as well as the foreign economic and political restrictions that have been started in the same year, in the segment of gas production Russian Gazprom continues to be an effective natural monopoly with an increasing coefficient of neutral technical progress, declining average gas production cost in new fields and minimal production costs, the marginal and average values of which coincide and do not depend on the volumes of gas produced.