TOOLS FOR ASSESSMENT AND RISK REDUCTION IN THE FORMATION OF PLANS FOR ROCKET-SPACE TECHNOLOGY

Gennadii Lavrinov

Evgeny Khrustalev

Oleg Khrustalev

Design and manufacture of high technology products with a long life cycle requires the formation of long-term scientific and technological plans and programs, which implementation is accompanied by a large number of uncertainties and various types of risks. One of the most important tasks that need to be addressed in preparing the development plans, are the methods and tools to identify and neutralize potential threats of disruption of planned activities due to the deviation of the plans’ implementation from the original trajectory. The paper proposed economic and mathematical tools for accounting, management and compensating the risks inherent in the processes of creation and development of the modern rocket and space technology in the framework of innovative plans and programs of transcendental and empirical methods of development planning options. To build a short-term plan for the development of rocket-and-space technology the authors have developed multivariate control, allowing to move from one short-term option plan to another one, preserving balance without a loss of consistency.