MODELING HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE MULTIPLIERS IN THE SAM MODEL: ESTIMATIONS FOR UZBEKISTAN

Naylya Ibragimova

Key objective of the government intervention into the economy is to ensure dynamic growth of GDP and employment, as well as macroeconomic stability. However, in order to meet the requirements of inclusive development, current macroeconomic policy should be based on the advanced approaches to macroeconomic analysis using findings from relevant macroeconomic models considering long-term development sustainability and social development issues. This article discusses results of construction and application of the consolidated social accounting matrix (SAM) model for the estimation of total multiplier effects in the economy. The article describes the process of compiling SAM in the framework of the national accounts methodology, provides detailed technique of the SAM matrix transformation into system of multipliers which enables thorough examination of the relationship between economic and social development (production system and institutional sectors) based on multipliers decomposition. Obtained results predict the impact of exogenous factors on the specific household quintiles’ income and consumption expenditure. The processes of multiplicative economic effects formation and distribution for three aggregate sectors are shown on the example of Uzbekistan economy.