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Modified computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy with the gas industry RUSEC – PAO “GAZPROM”
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Modified computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy with the gas industry RUSEC – PAO “GAZPROM”
Annotation
PII
S042473880000010-0-1
DOI
10.7868/s0424738818020036
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Anton Afanasiev 
Occupation: Professor at National Research University – Higher School of Economics
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Alexandr Vorontsov
Occupation: master program 1st year student at Faculty of Computer Sciences
Affiliation: Higher School of Economics
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Edition
Volume 54 Issue 2
Pages
29-49
Abstract
Forecasting the key macroeconomic indicators and evaluating their variance, influenced by a change in natural monopolies’ tariffs is the key priority of any country. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used for economical processes modeling and predicting macroeconomic indexes. CGE model of RUSEC-GAZPROM was designed in 2003 by CEMI RAS to estimate an impact of home natural gas prices change on key Russian macroeconomic indicators. The main purpose of this article is to show a modification of the initial version of RUSEC-GAZPROM by specifying economical agents’ behavior. This modification will allow researchers to investigate how the changes in home natural gas prices affect Russian macroeconomic indicators when gas production volumes are endogenous. There is a description of initial RUSEC–GAZPROM model, and it’s modification – RUSEC – PAO “GAZPROM” – as well as the description of model calibration process. The research also describes/shows the experiments made with the modified model, which demonstrate a reaction of the main Russian macroeconomic indicators on the change in home gas prices. The result of this research contains the modified version of RUSEC–GAZPROM and completed experiments with it. Modified RUSEC-GAZPROM model may be useful to Gazprom corporation, it’s subsidiaries and the Russian Government to find an effective strategy of regulating natural monopolies’ tariffs.
Keywords
CGE model, Russian economy, gas industry, Gazprom, internal natural gas prices, macroeconomic indicators, experiments, scenario calculations
Acknowledgment
The article was based on the results of a bachelor’s degree thesis performed in the spring of 2017 at the National Research University “Higher School of Economics” by the fourth-year bachelor student of the Faculty of Business and Management Alexander A. Vorontsov under the scientific supervision of the University Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences Anton A. Afanasyev. This study carried with the financial support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 17-06-00463 А) and Russian Foundation for Humanities (project 17-02-00457 А).
Received
09.10.2017
Date of publication
29.06.2018
Number of purchasers
15
Views
2219
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References

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