Везде
CRUDE OIL AND GAS CONDENSATE FORECASTING IN THE COMPUTABLE SIMULATION MODEL FOR MONEY CIRCULATION IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Table of contents
Annotation Estimate Publication content
References Comments
Share
QR
Metrics
CRUDE OIL AND GAS CONDENSATE FORECASTING IN THE COMPUTABLE SIMULATION MODEL FOR MONEY CIRCULATION IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Annotation
PII
S042473880000525-6-1
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Anton Afanasyev 
Edition
Volume 53 Issue 2
Pages
50-65
Abstract

The author proposes a modification of a computable simulation model for money circulation in the Russian economy developed in the Laboratory of social simulation CEMI together with academician V.L. Makarov and researcher A.A. Losev due to disaggregation of a block “Oil and gas industry” agent on the two modified model block – a block “Exploration of oil and gas” and a block “Oil and gas production”. In this article we will explore a model related to the exploration and production of oil and gas condensate leaving development of similar models for natural and associated gas for the next study. For modeling of crude oil and gas condensate production, we decide to divide all the 144 Russian oil fields and oil production centers into five groups according to the level of oil production in 2014. On the basis of the model’s two sub-blocks of exploration and production of oil and gas condensate, designed to computable monetary economy of Russia, we forecast volumes of Russian oil and gas condensate production up to 2035 for five aggregated centers of oil production, the federal districts and Russia as a whole under the inertial scenario of economic development in 2014. Given values of internal oil prices, the rate of tax of oil extraction, price and rental rates for new fixed assets, other fixed costs in the production of oil, given at the 2014 level the calculations show a decrease in volumes of oil and gas condensate production in Russia by 5% for 2035.

Keywords
forecasting, crude oil and gas condensate production, Russian economy, computable simulation model for money circulation, oil fields, exploration, tax maneuver
Date of publication
01.04.2017
Number of purchasers
4
Views
810
Readers community rating
0.0 (0 votes)
Cite   Download pdf
1

References



Additional sources and materials

Afanasyev A.A. (2008). Economic-and-Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of Natural Gas Production in the Tyumen Region. Gas industry 6, 19–25 (in Russian).


Afanasyev A.A. (2009a). Econometric Study of Production Functions of the Krasnoyarsk Krai Gas Industry. Economics and Mathematical Methods 45, 3, 3–11 (in Russian).


Afanasyev A.A. (2009b). Production Functions of the Tyumen Region Gas Industry and Subsidiaries of OJSC “Gazprom” in 1993–2007. Economics and Mathematical Methods 45, 2, 37–53 (in Russian).


Afanasyev A.A. (2012). Econometric Models of Natural Gas Forecasting. Oil & Gas Journal Russia 10, 65, 76–81 (in Russian).


Christiano L., Motto R., Rostagno M. (2010). Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations. Working Paper 1192. Frankfurt-am-Main: European Central Bank.


Christoffel K., Coenen G., Warne F. (2008). The New Area-Wide Model of the Euro Area – a Micro-Founded Open-Economy Model for Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Working Paper 944. Frankfurt-am-Main: European Central Bank.


Chung H., Kiley M.T., Laforte J.-Ph. (2010). Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) Model of the U.S. Economy: 2010 Version. Washington: Federal Reserve Board.


Edge R.M., Kiley M.T., Laforte J.-Ph. (2007). Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy: 2006 Version. Washington: Federal Reserve Board.


Erceg Ch.J., Guerrieri L., Gust Ch. (2006). SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis / International Finance Discussion Paper No. 835 (Revised). Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


Fagan G., Henry J., Mestre R. (2005). An Area-Wide Model for the Euro Area. Economic Modeling 22, 39–59.


Fujiwara I., Hara N., Hirose Y., Teranishi Y. (2005). The Japanese Economic Model (JEM). Monetary and Economic Studies 23, 2, 61–142.


Gafarov N.A., Kalityuk S.A., Glagolev A.I., Moiseev A.V. (2011). The Global Gas Business, New Trends, Scenarios, Technology. Moscow: Gazprom expo (in Russian).


GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model (2004). Washington: International Monetary Fund.


Harrison R., Nikolov K., Quinn M., Ramsay G., Scott A., Thomas R. (2005). The Bank of England Quarterly Model. London: Bank of England.


Klimenko A.V. Prediction of the Extractive Industries Taking into Account Natural Factors. In: “The Methods of Construction and Use of Macroeconomic and Sectoral Production Functions”. Moscow: CEMI AS USSR, 152– 174 (in Russian).


Laxton D., Isard P., Faruqee H., Prasad E., Turtelboom B. (1998). MULTIMOD Mark III: the Core Dynamic and Steady-State Models. Washington: International Monetary Fund.


Lees K. (2009). Introducing KITT: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand new DSGE Model for Forecasting and Policy Design. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin 72, June, 5–20.


Makarov V.L. (1999). Computable Model of the Russian Economy (RUSEC). Preprint number the wp / 99/069. Moscow: CEMI (in Russian).


Makarov V.L., Afanasiev A.A., Losev A.A. (2011). Computable Simulation Model for Money Circulation in the Russian Economy. Economics and Mathematical Methods 47, 1, 3–27 (in Russian).


Martos V.N. (1989). Guidelines for predicting recovery at the stage of field exploration. Moscow: VNIGNI (in Russian).


Murchison S., Rennison A. (2006). ToTEM: The Bank of Canada’s New Quarterly Projection Model. Rapport technique No. 97. Ottawa: Banque du Canada.


Nasinnik Z.A. (1975). Forecasting cost of oil and associated gas. Moscow: Nedra (in Russian).


Nikonov N.I. (2006). Rational complex of exploration for oil and gas: a course of lectures. Ukhta: Ural State Technical University (in Russian).


Roger S., Vlcek J. (2012). Macrofinancial Modeling at Central Banks: Recent Developments and Future Directions. IMF Working Paper No. 2/21. Washington.


Varshavsky L.E. (1976a). Genetic Modeling of Economic Development of the Oil and Gas Industry (on the Example of the Gas Industry of the USSR). Thesis for the degree of candidate of economic sciences on specialty 08.00.13. Moscow: CEMI AS USSR (in Russian).


Varshavsky L.E. (1976b). On Forecasting and Analytical Modeling of the Gas Industry. In: “Economy of the gas industry” 12, 16–24 (in Russian).

Varshavsky L.E. (1976c). The use of production functions in predicting performance gas development. In Economy of the gas industry. Vol. 5. Moscow: VNIIEGazprom, 21–28 (in Russian).

Comments

No posts found

Write a review
Translate