Dmitry Borodin

Leonid Krasnoschekov

It is evident that speculative incentives to liquidity preferences decrease the economic growth rate. The growth of this incentive is motivated by the growth of non-systematic savings. This paper suggests a definition of non-systematic savings and non-classical saving distribution scheme. The economic mathematical method was developed to analyze the impact of non-classical savings distribution scheme on the US stock market. The result achieved by means of applying this method allowed to identify the growing impact of non-systematic savings on the most important parameters of the US stock market. The starting period of this impact was determined. The assumption about time of transition from the classical scheme of savings distribution to a non-classical was made based on estimate of starting point of impact non-systematic savings on the stock market. An alternative approach to the analysis of the impact of non-classical savings allocation scheme was applied to complete the achieved result. This approach is based on a well-known impact of some parameters of the stock market on statements of assets of the stockbrokers. The transition from one distribution savings scheme to another is reflected in the regression curves of aggregated statements of the stockbrokers’ assets on the stock market parameters. Two-phase two-factor model in which first phase let identify classical incentive and second phase allowed to identify non-classical incentive was written to reflect the change of regression model over time. The confidence interval for point of intersection in two-phase regression was determined. This confidence interval allowed to make alternative assessment of the time in which the regression curve of aggregated statements of the stockbrokers assets on the stock market parameters was transformed. An estimate received by means of applying of the first method is included in the confidence interval for a point of intersection in a two-phase regression proving the change in savings allocation scheme.